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1 Article
Source: BBC

Is the US heading for a recession?

Today 20:56 GMT

Capital Economics warns that there is 30% chance of the US entering recession within 18 months: just in time for the run-up to the next US presidential election.

When that recession is in the world's largest economy, it's a major headache for its trading partners, not least the UK which sells 30% of its exports to the US. Shrinking output tends to mean huge job losses, stagnant incomes and widespread misery.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

S&P 500 lows We ain’t seen nothing yet, says Gundlach

Today 20:57 GMT

There may be a little more conviction in our call of the day, from DoubleLine founder Jeff Gundlach, who told clients Tuesday evening that the S&P 500 could take out February’s 2018 low due to a growth slowdown hitting company profits.

Some in Twitterland credited Gundlach for stirring up some action on S&P 500 futures overnight:. But what next for 2019 remains a pretty good question, especially if only the day traders are going to get anything out of it, if Tudor Jones is right.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

Why stock-market bulls may soon be complaining about the Fed’s quantitative tightening

Today 19:07 GMT

One reason why the Fed’s shift in tone regarding its plans for short-term interest rate hikes hasn’t calmed markets, analysts say, is its simultaneous policy of quantitative tightening, or the steady shrinking of its balance sheet, which it achieves by declining to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds on its books.

Starting in October, the Fed’s program of quantitative tightening, which began in June of 2017, hit its full stride, with the central bank allowing $50 billion each month in government debt and mortgage bonds to come off its books, reducing demand for these assets and contributing upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

Why Apple won’t overtake Microsoft and regain the title of the most valuable U.S. company

Today 19:07 GMT

When Microsoft overtook Apple to become the U.S.’s most valuable company last month, most headlines just reported it as a moment in time — an ephemeral blip before things returned to normal and Apple once again reigned supreme.

First, Apple, maker of some of the world’s most revered products, has an innovation problem: Since the Apple Watch made its debut in 2015, Apple hasn’t released anything of consequence that isn’t a mere incremental iteration of an existing product.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

It’s a not-so-happy 1st birthday for bitcoin futures

Today 19:06 GMT

Tuesday marks one year since the launch of bitcoin futures, an event hailed at the time as a momentous step forward for proponents of the nascent digital-asset industry that was seeking validity through mainstream adoption.

The Nasdaq is moving ahead with plans to launch its own bitcoin futures product in 2019, and the parent company of the rival New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, said it would launch a bitcoin futures contract in January.

1 Article
Source: BBC

Wages rise at fastest pace for decade

Today 17:16 GMT

Wages are continuing to rise at their highest level for nearly a decade, the latest official Office for National Statistics figures show.

He added that pay should improve in 2019, but warned: "After a pretty appalling decade, Britain remains some way off a return to the levels of real pay we enjoyed before the crash."

1 Article
Source: Reuters

Breakingviews - Global equities offer value trap in 2019

Today 14:31 GMT

After this year’s falls, U.S. equities in the Russell 1000 trade at 15.4 times next year’s estimated earnings, roughly in line with their 10-year average, according to FTSE Russell as of early December.

After two sharp corrections in February and October 2018, investors will be running their rules over stock-market valuations.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

A string of great bitcoin calls makes this Chilean trader a must-follow

Today 14:30 GMT

It was Chilean software developer Davinci Jeremie and going by his previous calls he might be the least-known bitcoin guru.

He bought his first bitcoin in March 2011 for the princely sum of $1 and at its peak, his portfolio consisted of 3,000 bitcoins and a smattering of altcoins, or digital currencies other than bitcoin. In a phone interview with MarketWatch, Jeremie said buying bitcoin early on was not easy because the main source of liquidity was an exchange that he refused to deal on, and which would lead to, arguably, his greatest call.

1 Article
Source: Reuters

Uber's dominant size may rob smaller Lyft of its IPO oxygen

Today 12:40 GMT

(Reuters) - Uber Technologies Inc [UBER.UL] and smaller rival Lyft are driving side-by-side on the road to a stock market debut, and that may not bode well for Lyft as investors decide where to place their bets in the ride-hailing sector.

Some IPO investors interviewed by Reuters said two IPOs in quick succession could force them to choose between Uber and the smaller and less diversified Lyft. “The advantage of being first to market with your IPO is the ability to control your destiny without being impacted by how the competing IPO is performing in the public market,” said Jim Williams, chief investment officer of Creative Planning Inc, a wealth and investment manager in Overland Park, Kansas, which manages $35.7 billion and advises clients who already own shares in Lyft and Uber, or are considering buying them.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

Tech Job Growth Remains Strong in November

Today 11:46 GMT

Employers continued to hire new information-technology workers last month, both inside and outside the U.S. tech sector, even as growth in the broader job market slowed, Comptia said.

The steady gains signal that demand for IT service workers, data specialists and software and applications developers remains strong, despite growing concerns over economic uncertainty. Hiring for core technology positions by all U.S. employers grew by 67,000 new jobs in November, down from 107,000 in October, according to the IT industry trade group’s analysis of the Labor Department’s latest jobs data.

1 Article
Source: CBS News

Strong U.S. job market hurts care for those in nursing homes

Today 11:46 GMT

What's good for America is bad for nursing homes and their residents, according to a study that shows low unemployment hurts the quality of service at elder care facilities.

Said Campbell: "We need to be creative in restructuring the job more holistically, supporting them on the job, acknowledging barriers they face in their daily lives and making sure they have tools to form relationships with residents that are really at the heart of long-term care."

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

Here’s why one market bull says betting on innovation is still a slam dunk

Today 11:46 GMT

Hobbs is providing our call of the day, which offers an alternative for investors sick to the teeth of tracking market ups and downs, and all matter of political headlines.

For Hobbs, the planet’s most precious resource is humans and what they can create, with, for example, more Chinese students headed for higher education and innovation patent applications taking off. Of course, it’s not so easy to pick those innovative stocks, but you can pick the companies and sectors that are likely to adapt quickly to new innovation, he says.

1 Article
Source: The Week

Twitter isn't real

Today 08:05 GMT

How many are stronger than they think and could weather the outrage cycle simply by saying: Twitter outrage isn't real outrage; Twitter shame isn't real shame.

As soon as the announcement was made, the denizens of Twitter went to work unearthing bits from his comedy (of which his Twitter feed is surely an extension) that were less than complimentary toward gay men, to say the least. Within two days, Hart had stepped aside, claiming he didn't want to be a distraction from the awards ceremony.

1 Article
Source: Common Domain

Brexit breakdown could be bullish for U.S. stocks

Today 08:05 GMT

That’s encouraging, since the extreme pessimism in the wake of that vote provided a textbook illustration of a contrarian buy signal for U.S. stocks.

The HSNSI currently stands at minus 21.2%, which means that the average timer focusing on the broad U.S. stock market is recommending that more than a fifth of their trading portfolios be allocated to going short. The HNNSI is even lower at minus 55.4%, indicating that — on average — half of these Nasdaq-oriented timers’ trading portfolios are currently short the market.

1 Article
Source: CBS News

Bernanke: U.S. has no system in place to deal with another financial meltdown

Tuesday 09:54 GMT

The film delves into what really happened during the financial market meltdown, a crisis caused by irresponsible mortgage lending and a subsequent bubble-burst in the housing market.

The Dow plunged more than 550 points Friday, partly in response to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China after the arrest of the CFO of the tech company Huawei. It's been a decade since the last major economic crisis, when about 8.7 million Americans lost their jobs and some of the world's biggest banks collapsed.


“Four hostile newspapers are more to be feared than a thousand bayonets...” ― Napoléon Bonaparte